M&A Activity Set to Increase in 2025 Amid Economic and Demographic Shifts

After a period of slowed deal making driven by high interest rates and uncertainty, the M&A landscape could look very different in 2025. As the economy adjusts to changing tax policies, evolving market conditions, and demographic shifts, business owners may find new opportunities to buy or sell. For many, 2025 could be the year to act, whether planning an exit or considering growth through acquisition. With a favorable tax environment, strong cash reserves in the private equity sector, and new market dynamics at play, now may be the time to start planning for a potential deal.

Here’s why M&A activity is expected to rise in the coming year and what you need to know to stay ahead.

Current Trends Affecting M&A Activity

• Interest Rates and Tax Policies. High interest rates have slowed deal-making over the past couple of years, but expected reductions may make transactions more affordable. If the Federal Reserve adjusts rates in the coming months, businesses could see an uptick in financing options. Additionally, potential changes in tax laws could make transactions more attractive.
• Demographic Shifts. As more business owners approach retirement age, many are considering selling or transitioning their businesses. This demographic shift is expected to drive M&A activity, as owners look to maximize value before potential tax changes take effect.
• Economic Recovery and Market Dynamics. With the global economy adjusting to post-pandemic conditions, there are emerging opportunities for businesses to capitalize on market shifts. Companies that have weathered previous economic disruptions may be well-positioned to expand, either through acquisition or strategic partnerships.

Why M&A Activity Could Rise

• A Stronger Tax Environment. Lower income tax rates, if extended, could encourage business owners to sell sooner to take advantage of favorable tax conditions. Potential changes to capital gains tax rates could also influence decisions, prompting owners to act before any unfavorable tax changes take effect. Similarly, a continuation of the higher estate tax exemption affords business owners expanded opportunities to transfer assets among family members before going to market.
• Private Equity Cash Reserves. Despite the high cost of debt, private equity firms are holding large cash reserves. As market conditions stabilize, these firms will likely seek opportunities to deploy capital in well-positioned businesses, driving M&A activity. With more cash available for deals, private equity firms are expected to target businesses with strong growth potential.

While the outlook for M&A activity in 2025 looks positive, there are still uncertainties. Political factors and potential tax law changes remain significant sources of concern. Current projections indicate a strong push to extend lower tax rates, though nothing is guaranteed. Additionally, global economic factors such as inflation, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions may impact market conditions. Businesses should remain prepared for shifting regulations and tax changes that could affect the timing of a sale.

For those considering a sale in the near future, early preparation is key. Regardless of whether you are just beginning to explore the idea or are closer to finalizing a deal, ensuring your business is ready for due diligence is essential. This means organizing your financials, assessing potential tax implications, and assembling a team with the right expertise to guide you through the process. Sellers should also consider potential tax changes when deciding on the timing of their sale, as any shifts in tax policy could significantly affect the final value of the transaction.

While we may see an uptick in M&A activity in 2025, the landscape may still be marked by uncertainty. AAFCPAs advises that clients collaborate with experienced professionals to best navigate these evolving conditions, ensuring you make the most informed decisions and maximize the value of your transactions.

How We Help

AAFCPAs’ Business Transaction Advisory team helps clients navigate complex transactions, from initial planning to successful execution. Whether managing buy-side, sell-side, or internal transactions, we provide strategic insights to maximize value while minimizing risk. Our team’s multi-disciplinary expertise—including CPAs, Certified Merger & Acquisition Advisors, Consulting Tax Attorneys, wealth advisors, and consulting CFOs—ensures a comprehensive approach to every deal, addressing everything from liquidity and tax structuring to asset protection and due diligence.

We support clients with a tailored, responsive approach to each transaction, leveraging the resources of our 350+ person firm to mobilize quickly and effectively. By aligning with your objectives and timeline, we help you seize time-sensitive opportunities and guide you through the deal cycle, ensuring your long-term business success.

If you have questions, please contact Richard Weiner, CPA, MST, CM&AA, Tax Partner at 774.512.4078 or rweiner@nullaafcpa.com—or your AAFCPAs Partner.